Get ready for slower economic growth and de-globalization, says investor and writer Ruchir Sharma.
Ruchir invited us to his New York office, where he is the head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He is also the author of "The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World."
Our interview looks at Ruchir's rules for spotting political, economic and social change. They include:
- The depopulation bomb: If the working population shrinks, so does the economy.
- Good versus bad billionaires: Wealth inequality is exploding, but some types of tycoons are viewed very differently than others.
- The curse of the cover story: Ruchir looked at every Time Magazine cover on the economy going back to 1980. If the cover was downbeat the economy grew faster 55% of the time. If it was upbeat, the economy slowed in 66% in the following years.
- Why democratic capitalism beats the Chinese brand: Postwar booms in democratic nations were usually stronger and longer than under authoritarian regimes.
"What's very apparent and under-appreciated is the major drop off that we've seen in the world's working age population growth rate," Ruchir tells us. "I think that is a major drag on global economic growth currently."